Reading a Pick
Pick side
Each pick names a team and a market. Right now SharpSDA covers MLB moneylineA bet on which team wins the game straight up, with no point spread. E.g. LAD -150 means you risk $150 to win $100 if the Dodgers win. picks only — the model is choosing which team it thinks will win the game outright.
Odds at publish
The American oddsAmerican-format odds. Negative (e.g. -150) means favorite — risk $150 to win $100. Positive (e.g. +130) means underdog — risk $100 to win $130. for the picked team at the moment the pick was published. These are a snapshot — the live line at your sportsbook may differ. The odds are used to calculate the implied probabilityThe win probability encoded in a betting line. Convert American odds: negative odds → |odds|/(|odds|+100); positive odds → 100/(odds+100). E.g. -150 ≈ 60%, +130 ≈ 43%. and to grade the pick's closing line valueClosing Line Value. The difference between the close-price implied probability and your bet-price implied probability. Positive CLV means you got a better price than where the market settled — the best predictor of long-run edge. after the game.
Units
The recommended stake, sized by quarter-KellyThe Kelly Criterion — a formula that sizes bets to maximize long-run bankroll growth. SharpSDA uses quarter-Kelly (conservative) to reduce variance., capped at 3.0 units. A unit1 unit = 1% of your bankroll. Using units lets you compare bet sizes regardless of bankroll size. A 2u bet is twice the size of a 1u bet. is 1% of your bankroll, so a 2.0u pick means betting 2% of your total bankroll on that game.
Rating (flames)
The 1–5 🔥 ratingA 1–5 🔥 score assigned at publish based on the size of the picked-side edge. Higher flames = larger model edge. reflects the size of the model's edge on the picked side. It is computed deterministically at publish and frozen — it never changes after the pick goes live. MUST BET picks meet a higher bar: edge ≥10%, model probability ≥60%, and Kelly ≥2u all at once.
Analysis
A model-generated narrative that explains the key factors behind the pick: pitching matchup, batting splits, park, weather, rest, and any relevant market signals. The tone scales with the rating — measured at 1🔥, genuinely excited at 4–5🔥.
Analysis is gated by subscription tier. Free users see the pick card (team, odds, rating, units) but the full write-up requires a Basic or higher subscription.
Result
After the game settles, the pick is graded W, L, Push, or Void. The net units column shows profit (positive) or loss (negative) in units. Results feed the track record shown on the Results page.